Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
